I have hypothesis function h(x) = theta0 + theta1*x.
How can I select theta0 and theta1 value for the linear regression model?
1 Answers
2
votes
The question is unclear whether you would like to do this by hand (with the underlying math), use a program like Excel, or solve in a language like MATLAB or Python.
To start, here is a website offering a summary of the math involved for a univariate calculation: http://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/regression-analysis/find-a-linear-regression-equation/
Here, there is some discussion of the matrix formulation of the multivariate problem (I know you asked for univariate but some people find the matrix formulation helps them conceptualize the problem): https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat501/node/382
We should start with a bit of an intuition, based on the level of the question. The goal of a linear regression is to find a set of variables, in your case thetas, that minimize the distance between the line formed and the data points observed (often, the square of this distance). You have two "free" variables in the equation you defined. First, theta0: this is the intercept. The intercept is the value of the response variable (h(x)) when the input variable (x) is 0. This visually is the point where the line will cross the y axis. The second variable you have defined is the slope (theta1), this variable expresses how much the response variable changes when the input changes. If theta1 = 0, h(x) does not change when x changes. If theta1 = 1, h(x) increases and decreases at the same rate as x. If theta1 = -1, h(x) responds in the opposite direction: if x increases, h(x) decreases by the same amount; if x decreases, h(x) increases by the quantity.
For more information, Mathworks provides a fairly comprehensive explanation: https://www.mathworks.com/help/symbolic/mupad_ug/univariate-linear-regression.html
So after getting a handle on what we are doing conceptually, lets take a stab at the math. We'll need to calculate the standard deviation of our two variables, x and h(x). WTo calculate the standard deviation, we will calculate the mean of each variable (sum up all the x's and then divide by the number of x's, do the same for h(x)). The standard deviation captures how much a variable differs from its mean. For each x, subtract the mean of x. Sum these differences up and then divide by the number of x's minus 1. Finally, take the square root. This is your standard deviation.
Using this, we can normalize both variables. For x, subtract the mean of x and divide by the standard deviation of x. Do this for h(x) as well. You will now have two lists of normalized numbers.
For each normalized number, multiply the value by its pair (the first normalized x value with its h(x) pair, for all values). Add these products together and divide by N. This gives you the correlation. To get the least squares estimate of theta1, calculate this correlation value times the standard deviation of h(x) divided by the standard deviation of x.
Given all this information, calculating the intercept (theta0) is easy, all we'll have to do is take the mean of h(x) and subtract the product (multiply!) of our calculated theta1 and the average of x.
Phew! All taken care of! We have our least squares solution for those two variables. Let me know if you have any questions! One last excellent resource: https://people.duke.edu/~rnau/mathreg.htm
