We do not provide a guarantee on delivery, but I would say that it is highly reliable.
There are cases where notifications can get dropped (a storage outage so that Media Services cannot deliver notifications to a queue for an extended period of time for example). I would recommend that you have a fallback plan that if a job hasn’t been updated by notification for some expected duration, that you have backup code to GET the job details from the API directly.
The “expected duration” is a little bit difficult to predict since job processing times vary by operation and input content size/complexity. There also can be queuing depending on the number of jobs submitted and the number of reserved units you have.
Hope that helps,
John