I’m trying to determine the impact of fuel excise cuts on the retail price of petrol.
To do this I need to model the price of fuel if the intervention never occurred.
To do this I would need to “predict” the fuel price based on a time series but also predictors such as international prices and exchange rates.
Once I predict the price based on historical prices and these other variables, I can then plot it against the actual price to measure the impact of the tax cut.
I’ve done a bunch of research into VAR, ARIMA and other models but I can’t find anything that does quite what I want.
Any help is much appreciated!
